Hi Again.
Historically, worst months for the market: September and October; that is behind
us! We had a reasonable correction; but I expected more of a correction. I made use
of the correction to increase my holdings. On 10/26/23, as a hedge against a big
correction, I bought some “PUT options” on the S&P500 (SPY) index. In just 16
days, they were up by 45%! On 10/3/23, my SPY puts were up 65% in 6 hours!! I
did not sell them as I was not trying to hedge against a minor correction. At all
times, I have a bit of money on “market hedges” so if we have a long, deep
correction as we did in early 2020, I can keep selling and buying more puts to make
use of the correction. As I have stated in the past, many months ago, when most
Wall Street pundits were bullish on banks and regional banks, I was sure that they
are mistaken so I bought 3 Put options to short sell regional banks with the ETF,
“KRE”. When the Silvergate bank collapsed, as I told you in the past, I made a
150% profit on one of those put options and the gain was bigger than the cost of all
my 3 put options so I did not sell the other two. Once again, “higher interest rates
for longer” belief brought down regional banks and on 10/27/23, one of my KRE
put options had a paper gain of 92%. I am not surprised that we had a major rally
around the beginning of November. At that time, the stocks shorted were at an 8
year high! Market crashes do not happen when so many investors and traders are
pessimistic about the future of the market. Over the past 40 years, I have learned
some valuable lessons when it comes to market trading. At times, “wall street
pundits” ask people to buy a stock (or an ETF) when they are ready to sell; and vice
versa. Long before Bill Ackman stated that he was shorting the 20 year Treasury
ETF known as TLT, I was doing it and I mentioned it here. In fact, as TLT was
going down, I kept buying to be “long” on TLT. It is a “no brainer”. In a couple of
years, Feds will lower rates and there will be capital gains on these TLT purchases;
and at the same time, the yield is pretty good(getting paid to wait) . On 10/19/23, I
purchased TLT, ETF at $82.93 per share and on 11/3/23, TLT was at $87.75- that
is a 6% gain in 15 days! It is very uncommon to make so much money in a short
period of time using a bond fund! On 7/1/20, TLT was trading at $171 per share;
imagine going to that level in the future! I do not expect it to happen. For 15 years,
the whole world was at 0% or close interest rates which will cause huge problems in
the world in the future. Now we have to get used to a new paradigm of “higher for
longer”. I was hoping to see higher interest rates on TLT so I can buy more at a
lower price. On 10/25/23, Bill Ackman said that he was selling his TLT shorts as
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interest rates have peaked. I do not know if interest rates have peaked but most
probably this is a “counter trend rally”.
For the past few months, I have been talking about Disney and that it is better to
buy Disney before the “pundits” change their minds and realize the value of Disney
as a long term buy. Now it is starting to happen! On 9/25/23, I got Disney at $80.72.
On 11/3/23, it was at $85.14- 5% gain in 39 days. On 10/9/23, Billionaire and
market expert Peltz stated that he is putting billions in to Disney. The best is yet to
come. I intend to make a good profit in about 5 years. Money managers have to
make money in the short run; or they can lose their jobs so we have an advantage
over professional money managers. As Treasury yields were rising utility stocks
(where people were hiding for a higher yield) declined rapidly. Why take a risk with
utility stocks when Treasuries gave you such high yield? On 10/3/23. Josh Brown
(astute money manager) stated that XLU (ETF for Utilities) was down 75% and at it
is at its lowest point ever! If the Feds are really at the end of the interest rate hiking
cycle, it would be a good time to think of buying the XLU ETF.
Have you heard of the VIX index? VIX index is the CBOE Volatility Index. As a
general rule, when the VIX index is too low, it is time to expect volatility to go up
and hedge against higher volatility with low premium options on the VIX or buying
the VIX index shares. On 10/16/23, VIX was at 15.72 and on 10/23/23 VIX was at
22- 40% gain in 7 days!