Hi Again,
Something interesting happened on 9/29/23, at market close; Disney closed at
$81.05! Why is that important? Disney on our portfolio has an average cost of
$81.05! Exact to the penny! Now as Disney goes lower, we can buy more and
lower our average cost and expect bigger returns within the next 5 years. Let us talk
about Disney and investing/trading strategies. Disney is having talks to sell the
ABC network and also trying to get in to a partnership with Amazon. I have
confidence in Bob Igor and not in the Wall Street “pundits”. Beware! I expect to
make a profit in 5 years! If it happens within 12 months, it would be great but we
must have realistic expectations. Why are the Wall Street “pundits” so pessimistic?
Money managers have to show a profit within the next few months or they can get
in to trouble with their ”bosses” and customers. On 3/7/21, Disney was at $197!
Need I say more? The Disney chart is still making “lower highs” and “lower lows”
so the current trend is to the downside and that will give us more buying
opportunities in the future. Looking at the 3 month chart, it seems like it is going to
make a double bottom: which is very bullish for the future.
Now we are in October! The month of terrible market crashes! If we are ready for
the worst, then we are ready for anything. Market is all about “mass psychology”.
Most people trade on emotions. That is why many people jumped to their death
during the 1929 crash. Extreme greed to extreme fear! How can you prepare
yourself for a crash (if it happens or not)? Play mind games with yourself. Mental
body runs the emotional body. If you invest/trade with emotions, you will end up
losing everything. How do you measure your “paper loss”? Most people compare
the last all time high with the current prices. That is all wrong. Recently I heard so
many complain about the September 2023 losses of companies like Boeing ($236 to
$191), King of all stocks, Nividia ($496 to $434), Netflix ($436 to $377) etc. etc.
One year ago, Boeing was at $126. Netflix was at $296 around 1/1/23. Now for the
star of the market- Nividia! Just 6 months ago, Nividia was only at $280 and then it
rose to $493 on 8/31/23!! Now people complain about Nivida going down to $434
during September (historically the worst month for the market)? Their growth is so
high that if you value the stock on a price to earnings (P/E) basis, this is a very
cheap stock even at this level. What will I do if we have a crash? First, as the crash
is happening, as I did in 2020, I will sell my index put options at a profit and buy
more to the downside. I will keep an eye on “good stocks” (i.e. Apple, Meta,
Google, Microsoft, etc.-“The Magnificent 7”). If those drop by about 50%
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(approx..), I will not only buy the stock, I might even get in to long term call
options. After a crash, there will be a “recovery”; which is called a “countertrend
rally”. Depending on macroeconomic conditions (not so good now), on some of the
stocks we hold, we should sell them before they reach their previous highs. This is
the other mistake made by most people; they wait till they “get their money back”.
Getting out with some losses is better than losing most of your money. During the
initial part of the 1929 crash, Mr. J P Morgan Jr. stated that he had confidence in the
market and poured “millions” in to the market and the trend reversed. Then on the
next leg down, Mr. Morgan kept putting “millions” but it did no good as it was like
standing in front of a tsunami! So the market went down 90%. In 1930, the “Dow”
ended at about 50 (from a high of 350). Around 1938, the “Dow” got back to about
200. Did most people get out at this stage? Oh No! They were waiting for the “good
old days” to return. Around 1940, it was down at 100 again. Then it rose to 200
around 1945 and prior to the it made a “double bottom”. If you had money in the
market in 1929, you only got your money back around 1960! We get in to positive
thinking and wishful thinking but it is better to be prudent with our investments and
trades. It is all about a “calculated risk”. Who was able to avoid the 1929 crash?
Joseph Kennedy; who had a bad reputation but one of the best market players of the
1920s. Just before the crash he was getting his shoes shined; and his shoe shine boy
gave him advice on what to buy/sell on the market! Joe Kennedy knew that the
market bubble was at a top so he sold off his holdings and avoided the crash. Hope
he rewarded that poor shoe shine boy! Probably, like most who lost money in the
market in 1929, that poor shoe shine boy never got back in the market again.
A surging stock market powered U.S. household wealth to a record high
of more than $154 trillion in the second quarter, aided by a rebound
in property values, Federal Reserve data out on Friday showed. Household net
worth rose 3.7% to $154.28 trillion in the period from April through June from
$148.79 trillion at the end of the first quarter, the Fed said in its quarterly snapshot
of the balance sheets of households, businesses and federal, state and local
governments. The data showed households have fully recouped the wealth losses
generated by a crushing bear market for stocks and weaker real estate values
through much of last year as the Fed kicked off an aggressive campaign to rein in
inflation through large, rapid-fire interest rate increases. The Standard & Poor's 500
total return index (.SPXTR), including reinvested dividends, delivered an 8.7%
return in the second quarter, its largest gain since the final three months of 2021.
The equity market's rally added $2.6 trillion to household net worth, accounting for
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nearly half of the overall wealth gain in the quarter. Real estate was the other large
driver, with property values rising for first time since the second quarter of 2022,
contributing $2.5 trillion to the increase in net worth. Household wealth at the end
of June exceeded the previous record high of $152.49 trillion set in the first quarter
of 2022 by about $1.8 trillion, or 1.2%. The data showed the size of households'
cash warchests - comprising a variety of bank deposits and money market mutual
fund holdings - continued to dwindle, declining for a record fifth straight quarter to
$17.7 trillion. Debt levels for households, businesses and governments kept rising
in the second quarter, though the pace of increase varied widely by sector. Total
nonfinancial debt increased at an annualized rate of 6.3% - the fastest since the first
quarter of 2021 - to $71.2 trillion, with households and businesses each accounting
for roughly $20 trillion and government $31.3 trillion. Business debt growth,
meanwhile, moderated substantially, climbing at just a 1.9% annualized rate in the
second quarter, its slowest growth since the final three months of 2020. (US
Markets, Reuters, 9/8/23).
If you have been following “markets”, I am sure that you heard that we are once
again having a bull market in “oil”. In June 2022, I looked at the charts of the 2
“oil” ETFs XLE (Energy Select SDR) and XOP (SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration
& Production) . Chevron and Exxon dominate XLE; and I bought a few shares and
both ETFs went up for more than a year. On 6/2/2023, looking at the 2 charts I
determined that XOP was more bullish than XLE. I was correct! In 2 months, XOP
rose by 20%!
I believe that I am very good at noticing trends. During the past 2 weeks, on most
days the yield on the US Treasury rises by 6.30am PST and then started falling off
during the day. This is a dream come true for traders. I have been using the ETF
known as TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF). Over the past few years I
have used options to trade around interest rate fluctuations. This trend will last for
the next 2 to 3 years. On 9/28/23, TLT ended at 88. How low can it go? Since TLT
started in 2003, the lowest level TLT reached was $81 in 2004. It is safe to assume
that we are close to a bottom. Lower it goes, higher the yield! The risk is extremely
minimal. Even if it goes down to 60, I do not mind. More the better! May to August
2020, TLT made a double top around 170! Making money on TLT is close to a
“sure thing”!
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Are we heading for a recession? Federal Reserve will not lower rates till we have a
meaningful recession. Initially the unemployment rate increases in California and
then the rest of the country follows. In August 2022, California unemployment rate
was at 3.8% and in June 2023, it was at 4.6%. I expect a recession in Q1 to Q3 of
2024.