Hi Again,
We had a 12.9% gain in February 2024.
Once again, after the Feds decision on 2/13/24, Jeffrey Gundlach (“New Bond King?”) stated
the following on CNBC:
Now real interest rates are reasonable.
Due to the high debt level, we cannot maintain high rates for long.
If rates go up, we will have a volatile market.
Market expected 6 rate cuts in 2024-simply absurd!
The Federal Reserve care about “optics” so they tend to be less aggressive during election
years.
3 month CPI annualized rate is going up.
If PCE (inflation) go up, Feds cannot lower rates.
2 Year yield shows that in 2 years, interest rate will be less than 1%.
Last year, “big tech” expected a return of 11% but we only got 1%.
Probability of a rate cut in May is low now.
88% of states report unemployment rose over the past 6 months- only states like
Wyoming and North Dakota are doing okay.
Most bullish on India.
He recommends 40% in bonds, 25% in cash and 35% in stocks.
Apple after reaching $195 on 12/11/23, dropped to $169 on 3/7/24. China sales dropped by
25%. Less dependent on China is a good thing. If you do not own Apple, it is a good time to
start nibbling and buy more as the price drops. China has been disappointing investors for a
long time. Their youth unemployment rate is so high, the communist party stopped reporting
those stats. Since they cannot revive domestic demand, they are trying their best to tap in to
overseas consumers. Essentially, China (Peoples Republic of China) is exporting deflation.
Larry Williams has created numerous market indicators, including Williams %R, Ultimate
Oscillator, COT indices, accumulation/distribution indicators, cycle forecasts, market
sentiment, and value measurements for commodity prices.[9][10] Williams won the 1987
World Cup Championship of Futures Trading from the Robbins Trading Company, where he
turned $10,000 to over $1,100,000 (11,300%) in a 12-month competition with real money. On
3/5/24, Larry stated:
This market will go from a “melt up” to a “melt down”.
Expect NASDAQ to peak around 3/15/24.
Expect NASDAQ to go down from 3/15/24 to 5/31/24.
2
If we have a serious market correction, before long, we will be able to get to a temporary
bottom. All the people who missed out on this rally are waiting for an entry point. As of 3/1/24,
CNBC reported that we have $6 Trillion in money market funds. People like Gundlach believes
that most of that money will go in to long term bonds but I expect a good percentage to get in to
stocks.
Now to the “darling” of the stock market- Nvidia. On 10/11/22, I bought some at $117. My
strategy was to buy more when the price drops; but I never got a chance. On 3/7/24, it reached a
peak of $926! On 3/18/19, it had a market price of $44! 3/7/24 to 3/8/24, NVIDIA dropped
from $926 to $875 and most “pundits” stated that this was the end of road for NVIDIA.
Nonsense! NVIDIA is the most active stock option in the option market and 3/8/24 was an
option expiry day-that was the cause.