Hi Again,
Take a look at the scorecard. We had a 8.96% gain for our portfolio in November. Now all
markets are in a bubble so be very careful. Carley Garner is an American commodity market
strategist and futures and options broker and the author of Trading Commodity Options with
Creativity, Higher Probability Commodity Trading, and A Trader's First Book on Commodities,
published by DT publishing an imprint of Wyatt-MacKenzie. On 11/12/24, Carly predicted that
the S&P 500 could go down significantly. Carter Braxton Worth is an American financial
analyst and stock market strategist. Each year since 2008, he has appeared on institutional
investor's All America Research Team, ranked as one of the Top 3 technical analysts on Wall
Street. Carter is married to Andrée Jill Finkle. On 11/3/24, Carter stated that “home builder”
stocks should go down and recommended buying put options on ITB ( iShares US Home
Construction ETF) as option premiums have declined.
On 11/13/24, inflation figures (Core CPI) came in showing that inflation is “sticky” and not
going down to 2%. Short end yields on the treasuries were going down while the long end kept
rising due to budget deficits. On 11/20/24, Fed Governor Bowman stated that the progress we
have been seeing on the inflation front has slowed. Do not expect rate cuts!
Bitcoin supply is limited but the demand keeps growing. Trump is expected to buy 6% of all
Bitcoins for a government reserve. Ever since a Trump victory was expected, Bitcoin prices
have been skyrocketing. When the “Yen Carry trade” fell through and Bitcoins fell about 25%,
for a trade I bought the Bitcoin ETF IBIT on 8/6/24 at $31.83. On 12/3/24, IBIT is at $54.46- a
71% gain within 4 months.
MicroStrategy is a business intelligence (BI) firm that was founded in 1989 by Michael J.
Saylor and Sanju Bansal. Saylor started MicroStrategy with $250,000 in start-up capital from
DuPont, where he had a consulting contract. The company's software was inspired by a course
on systems-dynamics theory at MIT. MicroStrategy's first major client was McDonald's, with a
$10 million contract in 1992. The company's revenues increased by 100% each year between
1990 and 1996. MicroStrategy went public on June 11, 1998. Saylor was initially skeptical of
Bitcoin, but became a believer around 2020. He began adding Bitcoin to MicroStrategy's
treasury, believing it would give the company an advantage over the long term. MicroStrategy's
Bitcoin holdings have made it a way for investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin without buying it
directly. As of November 25, 2024, MicroStrategy held 386,700 Bitcoin, which is 1.84% of the
total that will ever be mined. To start with, MicroStrategy provided a way for investors to gain
access to Bitcoin without having to buy futures contracts or purchase tokens on a random
cryptocurrency exchange. Following its latest round of buying activity, MicroStrategy holds
386,700 Bitcoin (as of Nov. 25), which represents 1.84% of the 21 million Bitcoin that'll ever
be mined. No company comes remotely close to holding as many Bitcoin in reserve as
MicroStrategy. It's often easy for investors to buy or sell shares of companies that trade on
major U.S. exchanges, and there's minimal concern about nefarious activity or theft, which isn't
always the case when buying Bitcoin directly on overseas cryptocurrency exchanges. Second,
2
MicroStrategy is benefiting from first-mover advantages. In addition to Bitcoin being the first
decentralized cryptocurrency, MicroStrategy is the first public company to effectively adopt
Bitcoin purchasing/investing as an operating model. Investors have a tendency to flock to
businesses that are first movers in ultra-popular trends. Third, MicroStrategy has found a way,
for the moment, to use leverage to its advantage. The company has been issuing ultra-low-yield
or 0% yield convertible senior notes to raise capital to purchase Bitcoin. These convertible notes
allow the holder to either be repaid in full, or convert their note into shares of MicroStrategy at
a premium to where they are now. On social media message boards, you might see this strategy
referred to as "MicroStrategy's infinite money glitch." Convertible note sales allow the company
to buy more Bitcoin, which in turn increases the price of the world's largest cryptocurrency and
allows the company to issue more convertible notes. It's a repeating cycle that's undeniably
played a role in pushing Bitcoin close to the psychologically important $100,000-per-token
level. While there's no question that MicroStrategy has proved the skeptics wrong, thus far,
history has a way of rhyming on Wall Street. Similar leverage-driven scenarios like this have
always eventually (key word!) ended in pain for the companies and shareholders behind them.
Bradley Thomas Gerstner is an American investor and hedge fund manager. He is Founder,
chairman and CEO of Altimeter Capital. Gerstner appeared on the 2022 Forbes Midas List after
his firm's successful investments in Snowflake and Grab. Brad is the ultimate expert on
technology stocks. On 11/21/24, Brad stated:
Nvidia announced a blockbuster quarter on 11/20/24
Nvidia price will rise while Intel and other chip stock prices will decline.
2025 will be a robotaxi year and Tesla will benefit.
This is not good for Uber.
Time to buy software stocks.
Time to get out of stocks like Pfizer
At times, like buying a lottery, I put in a little bit of money on stocks that might rise
significantly in the future (even though the fundamentals are pretty bad). The next phase of
computing is going to be “Quantum Computing”. On 11/15/24, I bought QUBT and RGTI after
doing a little bit of research. 11/15/24 to 11/25/24, in 10 days, QUBT was up 131% and RGTI
was up by 95%! On 11/25/24, Jim Cramer (on CNBC) stated that “people are buying anything
with quantum in the name”! So true! As if he read my mind! Jim stated that QUBT is up 500%
and it was a beverage company till 2018. Cramer said that these are signs that the market is in a
bubble and it makes him nervous. I agree 100%. That is why I always have some put options as
a hedge (if I lose the money, it is a tax deduction). All markets are in a bubble- Stocks, Gold,
Biotcoins etc. etc. Buyer beware!