Happy New Year, Everyone !!
2023 was a good year for the “market”; especially for the “magnificent 7”. Our portfolio went
up 53.51% from 1/1/23 to 12/31/23. The “DOW” aka DOW30 went up 13.73% in 2023-
33,148.90 on 1/3/23 to 37,701.63 on 12/29/23. Even though I bought Meta/Facebook when it
reached $85, I did not add it to our portfolio; or else, our gain would have been much greater.
Top 100 on NASDAQ or the NASDAQ100 was up more than 50% in 2023-only second to
1999. As it happened in 1999, we could be getting “too frothy”. It is impossible to find anyone
on Wall Street that is not bullish about 2024. That is scary! As a hedge, I put a little bit of
money in to S&P500 (SPY) put options. Towards the end of the year, assuming that the Federal
Reserve is done raising interest rates, “value stocks” or the 493 S&P500 stocks that missed out
on the bullish run, took part in the bull market. Some expect rates to fall to 0% but that is just a
pipe dream. If we go in that direction, inflation will flare up again and the Feds will tighten
again. We saw this movie in the 1970s with Arthur Burns running the Federal Reserve. Powell
keeps saying that he wants to be more like Volker than Arthur Burns (to kill inflation) but no
one believes him. We have to be cautious. As Warren Buffet says, “ Get fearful when others are
greedy and get greedy when others are fearful”. Even small caps (Russell 2000) had a mighty
gain during the last part of 2023. Most brokerage firms predict that the S&P500 will end 2024
at 5200 and at 6,000 by the end of 2025. Tom Lee who had been the best bull on Wall Street,
predicts the Russell 2000 will go up by 50% in 2024. Professor Siegel is confident that value
stocks will dominate 2024. With all this optimism, we could have a serious correction in 2024
but that would be another buying opportunity. In other words, if the market goes up or down, it
is just a win-win situation. We have to stay calm and act rationally.
On 12/13/23, Josh Brown (good money manager) stated that we could have a recession in 2024.
The Federal Reserve should get the credit for getting rid of a 9% inflation rate with no
unemployment. Once again, we got lucky. Economic slowdown in China and some other
countries, created deflation that got exported to the US. Price of oil/gas is the best example.
One of the smartest people on the “Street” is the new bond king, Jeffrey Gundlach. After every
Fed decision, Gundlach shares his perspective on CNBC. In that tradition, on 12/13/23, he
made the following observations:
We will have a recession in 2024.
People expect $6 Trillion in “money markets’ (T Bills) to flow in to stocks but Gundlach
believes that most of that money will flow in to long term bonds.
Feds will lower rates before inflation gets to 2%.
Inflation, due to time lags, will go down significantly by June 2024.
Feds may have to cut rates more than currently expected.
The economy will undershoot on the downside so stocks and bonds will pivot in 2024.
Studying trends in the commodity market, inflation could go down to 0% in 2024.
In 2023, we had the biggest gain in bonds since the 1980s.
Expect a year of great volatility in 2024.
Stocks need bonds but bonds do not need stocks. By June 2024, bonds will not need
stocks and bonds will go up.