Hi Again,
I sent out my last newsletter on 4/4/23; and I stated that the banking crisis is not
over. Two days later on 4/4/23, Jamie Diamond (known as the best bank CEO-J P
Morgan) stated, “Banking crisis is not over. Aftershocks will be felt for years”. Yet,
a few days after that, many Wall Street experts started saying that the banking crisis
is over. Last week, the banking crisis was on the news again.
Regulators Prepare to Seize and Sell First Republic. JPMorgan, PNC and Bank of
America are said to be interested in acquiring the troubled lender after it is seized
by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. Federal regulators were racing over
the weekend to seize and sell the troubled First Republic Bank before financial
markets open on Monday, according to people with knowledge of the matter, in a
bid to put an end to a banking crisis that began last month with the collapse of
Silicon Valley Bank. The effort, led by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation,
comes after First Republic’s shares tumbled 75 percent since Monday, when the
bank disclosed that customers had withdrawn more than half of its deposits. It
became clear this past week that nobody was willing to ride to First Republic’s
rescue before a government seizure because larger banks were worried that buying
the company would saddle them with billions of dollars in losses. The F.D.I.C. has
been talking with banks that include JPMorgan Chase, PNC Financial Services
and Bank of America about a potential deal, three of the people said. A deal could
be announced as soon as Sunday, these people said, cautioning the situation was
rapidly evolving and might still change. Any buyer would most likely assume the
deposits of First Republic, eliminating the need for a government guarantee of
deposits in excess of $250,000 — the limit for deposit insurance. As of Sunday
(4/30/23) morning, at least a few bidders had been told that they had until noon
to submit their offers, according to two people familiar with the matter. The
Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation did not comment. It’s possible that an
agreement won’t be reached, in which case the F.D.I.C. would need to decide if it
would seize First Republic anyway and take ownership itself. In that case, federal
officials could invoke a systemic risk exception to protect those bigger deposits,
something they did after the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in
March. If officials decided against that, some economists warned that the
consequences could be serious. “The government needs to act in a way where the
uninsured depositors get their money out in whole,” Lawrence Summers, a
former Treasury secretary now at Harvard, said in an interview on Saturday,
either through a takeover or by a government guarantee.
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Failing to do so “runs a substantial risk of setting off a wave of further
withdrawals from all but the largest of institutions,” he added. The F.D.I.C.
started sounding out potential buyers late last week as it became clear that there
were few options outside a government takeover, one of the people said. By
Friday, it had asked potential bidders to submit binding offers by Sunday, this
person said. Those potential bidders have been given access to detailed
information on First Republic’s finances, one of the people said. (The New York
Times, 4/30/23)
On 4/28/23, Jim Cramer stated that after the seizure of the First Republic Bank
by the FIDIC, this banking crisis will be over. Even though I have a lot of respect
for Jim Cramer; I disagree 100%. I am in the Jamie Diamond camp as I believe
that there will be fallouts for years to come; especially as the Feds tighten
monetary policy to combat inflation. Or else, as the Feds stated, “inflation will
destroy everything”. Former Fed Governor Dennis Lockhart stated that in 2007,
the Fed balance sheet was at $800 billion and now it is at $9 Trillion. I am
surprised that inflation is not more of a problem at this time. It is going to take a
long time and a bad recession (or worse) to bring inflation down to 2% (Fed
target). Probably the worst part of the recession will hit us by the end of 2023 or
in 2024. On 4/20/23, CNBC reported that 20% of US consumers are buying
groceries with credit cards. According to bond experts, when expectations of a
recession rises, junk bond yields will rise (not high enough at this time), and
when that happens, it will be a good time to get in to high yield bonds. At this
time, we have to be patient and be on the lookout for opportunities In all
markets. When we see an opportunity, we have to start buying/nibbling (little at
a time) on the way down and decrease our average cost. Most people rush in and
buy prematurely due to “FOLO” (fear of losing out). It is okay to miss
opportunities. As it was said in a movie about love, “it is like waiting for a bus;
when you miss one bus, all you have to do is to wait for the next bus”. It is just a
matter of time! We must never get in to overvalued stocks-even if it has been
good to do so in the past. Apple has a high PE of 28; while the PE for Amazon is
extremely high at 72! High multiples come from expectation of robust revenue
growth. Can that happen in a recession? Then we have to be careful about some
industries. Oil and Gas is not a good long term bet as the whole world is moving
away from that industry. Also, we have to be careful of the airline industry. Delta
is the best in the field. On 4/13/23, Josh Brown quoting Warren Buffet said,
“Someone should invent a time machine, and for the sake of capitalism, go back
in time and kill the Wright Brothers”.