April 5 Post

Hello Again,

 The net gain for our portfolio for March 2021 came to 11.15% (scoreboard given) and the net gain for February 2021 was 14.32%.

 During March 2021, we purchased more of Tesla to bring down our average cost. Our goal is to make money in 2 to 3 years and be ready to have a paper loss till then. We bought 2 shares of Tesla on 2/26/21 at $675 and we purchased 10 shares at $563 on 3/8/21 bringing down our average cost to $581.67. Already we have a gain of 14.84% in one month or so. I expect Tesla to fall below $400 (or even $200) within the next 12 months and be over $1,000 within the next 2 years. Cathy Woods who has been accurate about her predictions for Tesla for a long time predicts that Tesla will be at $3,000 to $7,000 in 5 years. We added RIOT, Bitcoin substitute 2 months ago and now it is up 166%. On RIOT too, I will not be surprised to see a 66% decline over the next 12 months. As the dollar gains more credibility with rising interest rates and as bubbles get burst, Bitcoin could go down but that would be a buying opportunity. About 4 months ago, the market analyst and astrologer Merriman (who has been advising big Wall Street firms for 40+ years) stated that not to expect the market to allow people to make easy money in 2021 as it did in 2020. A few days ago, I heard the “market guru” Jim Cramer say the same and he was asking people to get out of options. Most people who trade in options do so with short term options. Whenever possible, I trade in options that expire in 2022 or better yet 2023.

 In 2020, NASDAQ was the leader and when it made new all-time highs, the Dow Jones (DJIA) and the S&P failed to do the same (per Merriman, “intermarket bearish divergence”) and now it is the reverse. Investors are switching to the “reopen trade”. It is impossible for that to happen without the old favorite “FANG’ (Facebook, Apple etc.) going down. Better opportunities are with the “reopen trades”. Why make 5% to 10% gain when you can make 50% to 100%+? On 3/12/21, Carter Worth, the technician stated that Tesla, Apple and Paypal account for 17% of the top NSADQ 100 and the top 7 is responsible for 50% of top NASDAQ 100 market cap.  However no one can predict what will happen in the future; as the famous Wall Street maxim goes, “ Just as you think you finally found the key to the market, the market changes its locks”.

 Many predicted that NASDAQ was bottoming and among them was the technician, Carter Worth, who stated the following on 3/4/21:

  NASDAQ broke the neckline to the downside

·  NASDAQ seems to be bottoming. (ETF QQQ up 5% since 3/4/21)

·  Google/Alphabet would be the best “bet” for a buy at this time. (Up 6% since 3/4/21). Travel is heating up and Google gets a lot of ad dollars from the travel industry. Latest round of stimulus checks should “add gas to the fire”. This is better than going with airlines with terrible balance sheets.

Have a Happy Easter/Spring!!

Fernando