Hi Again,
It is obvious that most experts/technical analysis are very confused with respect to this market. It is like 1999/2000 all over again. There are differences between then and now but as it happened then investors and traders are acting irrationally. I subscribe to 4 good “technicians’ on a daily basis and they are all confused. The least confused is the technician Carolyn Boroden or the Fibonacci Queen and that is because she takes a very short term perspective when it comes to the market. At this time she calls herself a “cautious bull”. Prior to 8/7/20, she was saying that there is “time resistance” for NASDAQ between 8/7 and 8/11/20 and after a long time, there was a minor correction in the NASDAQ on 8/7/20. Ryan who writes for the “Trend Lizard” and uses the Elliott Wave Theory effectively, used to be a 100% bull till a few weeks ago when he called for a major correction but the market kept going up. Corrections are good for the long term health of the market and longer we go like this we invite another crash. Today (8/7/20), Ryan stated, “Deciphering near-term price action has been tricky, thanks to less than clear price patterns and exceptionally different patterns depending on which the market sector you are looking at.
At this point, it is hard to imagine what it would take to shake this market. This move has ignored bearish price patterns, market sentiment, technical indicators, the 200-day moving average, seemingly negative news headlines, the worst drop in history on quarterly GDP, and the list goes on”. Ryan advises his followers to stay away from the market till there are clear signs to enter the market. Robert Prechter who predicted the 1987 crash states that it is dangerous to be in stocks at this time; and he predicts that in a few years when this “Grand Cycle” ends, the Dow will be below 1,000 (it was close to 30,000 in February 2020). Merriman states that August 2020 is going to be very dangerous for the market and advises everyone to stay away from stocks. On 8/7/20, Carolyn Boroden, in her daily video states in August 2020, there is a cluster of time resistance days that makes the market dangerous in August 2020 and the last time this happened was in February 2020. We know what happened in March 2020! She also correctly pointed out that for the first time in many months, NASDAQ, 5-day-moving average went under the 13-day-moving average on 8/7/20. This is a warning of danger that is fast approaching. On the other hand if that market has been down and if the 5-day-moving average goes over the 13-day-moving average, it is a “buy signal”. The 4 tech biggies move all markets. The market cap of Apple alone is 80% of the Russell 2000 stocks! Just since 7/1/20, Apple rose 24%! Since 3/31/20, Apple is up 100%!! For a brief period, Apple’s 5-day-moving average went below it’s 13-day-moving average which is a warning about Apple’s future. Some believe that China will react to Trump by banning Apple from China. Big tech companies get 70% of their revenue from other countries. If Apple crashes, it will take down the whole market! Most ETFs are heavily in to Apple and the tech leaders. Let us hope that we will have a deep correction soon.
Have a great month!
Fernando