July 2 Post
Hi Again,
The 3 tech stocks we added to our portfolio on 6/1/24 (Adobe, Dell Tech and Salesforce) had an
average gain of 22% in June; which led to a 36.53% gain for the total portfolio in June. The
market had a pretty good first half of 2024. Everyone is talking about NVIDIA. Now the
biggest market cap stock in the world! $3T Mkt cap as of 6/30/24. On 6/10/24, it had to 10 to 1
split. On 6/11/24, I bought some call options expiring January 2025 and in 2 days, my call
options were up by 25%! Two years ago, I bought some NIVIDIA at $117, hoping to buy more
when it drops but it kept moving up. I do not like to buy more when the stock prices go up as it
increases my average cost. By 6/7/24, NVIDIA was up by 1000% !!
Larry Richard Williams (born October 6, 1942) is an American author, stock and commodity
trader, Williams is the author of 11 books, most on stocks and commodity trading. Williams has
created numerous market indicators, including Williams %R, Ultimate Oscillator, COT indices,
accumulation/distribution indicators, cycle forecasts, market sentiment, and value
measurements for commodity prices.[8][9] Williams won the 1987 World Cup Championship of
Futures Trading from the Robbins Trading Company, where he turned $10,000 to over
$1,100,000 (11,300%) in a 12-month competition with real money. On 6/14/24, on CNBC,
“Mad Money”, Larry stated that NVIDIA is close to a temporary top and it should fall to around
$90. On 6/18/24, it made an intra day high of over $140 and ended the day at $136. From
6/18/24 to 6/24/24, it fell from $136 to $118! Stay tuned! If NVIDIA goes down 25% to 50%, it
would be a perfect buying opportunity!
A couple of years ago, when everyone was bullish on regional banks, I bought put options to
short sell regional banks through the ETF, “KRE”. When the Silicon Bank failed in 2023, my
put options tripled in price. A few months ago, once again, expecting the Feds to cut rates, Wall
Street was bullish on regional banks. I do not agree. Even if interest rates go down, it is very
unlikely that we will see zero percent rates again. If we do, we will have a huge problem with
inflation and another global economic disaster. Regional banks are going to have crisis as the
office real estate crisis grows all over the US. According to one estimate, these real estate
companies have to increase rents by 42% to stay alive. With very high vacancy rates, that is not
possible. In my opinion, by the end of 2026, we should see this negative impact on regional
banks. Therefore om 6/12/24, I bought some put options (to short sell) regional banks (ETF,
“KRE”) that expire in December 2026. Once again I expected the prices to drop in the short run
so I can buy more and make a profit around December 2026. In just 14 days, on 6/26/24, my put
options were up by 51%! If the Feds lower rates later this year, regional banks (KRE) will go up
and my put prices will go lower; which will give me a chance to buy more.
Jeffrey Edward Gundlach (born October 30, 1959) is an American businessman, investor, and
philanthropist. He is the founder of DoubleLine Capital, an investment firm. Gundlach was
formerly the head of the $9.3 billion TCW Total Return Bond Fund, where he finished in the
top 2% of all funds invested in intermediate-term bonds for the 10 years that ended prior to his
departure. He was fired by TCW in 2009. In the aftermath, Gundlach and TCW sued each other
and went to jury trial in California; TCW alleged that Gundlach stole trade secrets (TCW
prevailed, but was awarded $0 for the claim), Gundlach sued over compensation claims
(Gundlach prevailed, and was awarded $66.7 Million). In 2009, shortly after his firing from
TCW, Gundlach founded Doubleline, along with Philip Barach and 14 other members of
Gundlach's senior staff from TCW. Barach was Gundlach's co-manager of the $12 Billion TCW
Total Return bond fund. In a February 2011 cover story, Barron's called him the "King of
Bonds" On 6/12/24, soon after the Fed decision, Mr. Gundlach made the following
observations:
Powell is neutral now.
Powell used the word “balance” quite a bit.
Less confident of a rate cut in 2024.
Powell is in a reactionary mode.
Feds are tilting towards a rate cut but a rate hike is possible in 2024/2025.
Labor market is weakening but not in a major way.
We are receiving highly contradictory information on the economy.
Next move should be a rate cut.
Money Supply M2 is way above pre-pandemic levels and it is growing.
Inflation depends on the life style of the person. Top 50% of people are doing well and
the bottom 50% are in trouble.
Unemployment rate dipped below 4%-first time since 1960. Expected to be at 4.4% by
December 2024.
Government might try to bring down gas prices.
Some low risk bonds have a yield of around 8% per year.
The stock market needs rate cuts to survive.
Still bullish on Gold and India (strongest economy).
Current situation is comparable to 1968.
It would be suicidal to extend tax cuts which is a blow to deficits.