August 7 Post
Hi Again,
We had a very small correction that lasted a couple of hours. The market is dead in the water. Hopefully we will have a big correction before December. Nothing much is happening now; it is the same old story. Historically, summer is a dull time for the market.
Over the past 9 months, crude prices have been rising and I have been warning that this is not sustainable. In October 2020, crude was at about $40 and recently, it rose to $75. Then many investors started buying the commodity and oil companies. I always felt that it was a mistake. Buy at $75 and sell at $100? Oil companies are not making long investments as more and more countries are moving away from fossil fuels. Also it was due to domestic production that prices crashed in the first place; which implies that when oil prices rise, domestic production will rise and keep a cap on prices. Value of deals in the US shale industry in 2021 Q2; $33 Billion- second highest ever! Imagine crude going up to $100; what will happen to domestic production? We have seen that movie before.
Carolyn Boroden is a top-notch technical analyst, who specializes in advanced Fibonacci strategy, in addition to a published author. As she’s been in this industry for over several decades now, she first became interested in Fibonacci in Chicago in 1986. After learning Fibonacci from Robert Miner, she ventured to open her own website. Carolyn is also known by her nickname, “Fibonacci Queen”. Carolyn has been accurate about past corrections on the S&P 500. This is what Carolyn stated on 7/21/21:
· Since 1/1/21, average correction did not last for more than 3 days so we can expect the same for the next few months
· On the S&P 500, if we can manage to stay above the 7/19/21 low (4233), then the market will maintain its bullish trend. Next goal: 4492
· If the S&P 500 falls below 4023, then we could have a big correction.
· If the market is bullish, it is also bullish for the big stocks such as Apple, Google/Alphabet, Facebook, Microsoft, Amazon etc. Apple alone is 6.1% of the S&P.
Carley Garner is an American commodity market strategist and futures and options broker and the author of "Higher Probability Commodity Trading" published by DT publishing an imprint of Wyatt-MacKenzie. She has also written four books published by FT Press, Currency Trading in the FOREX and Futures Markets, A Trader's First Book on Commodities (two editions), and Commodity Options. Commodity Options was named one of the "Top 10 Investing & Trading Books of 2009" by SFO Magazine. This is what Carly stated on 7/13/21:
· December 2023 Oil Futures show that oil prices will go down in the future.
· The stock market is close to a top.
· Usually oil prices peak in July
· With respect to oil, right now, big speculators are mostly bullish so that is bearish for the long term. Outcome should be like 2018.
· If Crude falls below $80, it could go down to $60; and if it goes below $60, it could go down to $40.
As I have been expecting, Apple has been doing well lately. It is better to bet on a solid company with solid balance sheets and growth than invest in companies with no earnings. Apple is the best with $190billion in cash and that has been the case for a very long time. On 10/31/20, Apple on our portfolio had a gain of 370% and as of 7/31/21, it has risen to 529.93%! On 7/14/21, Apple asked suppliers to increase production by 20% as they are expecting a boost in IPhone sales.
Gene Munster is Managing Partner & Co-Founder of Loup Ventures, a research-driven venture capital firm based in Minneapolis and New York investing in frontier tech companies. This is what Gene stated on 7/27/21 on the recent Apple earnings call:
· Apple exceeded analyst expectations.
· Expect Apple price to go over $200 in 2021/2022
· Investors should be patient with Apple
· Service industry (i.e. Healthcare) to generate $300B+ in revenue
· Technically, “past resistance” is a “future floor” so most probably at least in the near term, Apple will not fall below $139.07 (high of 1/18/21).
There are several ways to make money off Apple. On 8/5/21, Apple closed at $147. Let us consider options that expire on 9/10/21 (in 36 days). Strike price $139 had a price of $1.40 so if you write a naked put option with the strike price $140 that expire on 9/10/21, you can collect close to 1% (that is 1% per month). Per Gene Munster, most probably, Apple will not fall below $140 in the short term so your put option will expire worthless so you will end up with 1% per contract “written” in your pocket. If Apple falls below $140 before 9/11/21, you will be obligated to buy 100 shares of Apple at $140 for each contract you “wrote/sold”.
Historically September and October are the worst months for the market. Professionals are buying hedges to get ready!